DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/18 07:40

   Cotton Loses Its Technical Nerve  

   The cotton market retreated even further Thursday as its failure to hurdle 
obvious technical resistance encouraged additional selling. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market retreated even further Thursday as its failure to hurdle 
obvious technical resistance encouraged additional selling. Wednesday morning 
saw the December contract attempt to pierce a major bearish trendline, which 
would have changed the look of the charts. Traders will now assess export sales 
and the CFTC data for whatever influences they may generate.

   USDA just released its weekly export sales report with the following 
numbers:  "Net sales of Upland totaling 186,100 running bales (RB) for 
2025/2026 were up 44 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the 
prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Vietnam (77,000 RB, 
including decreases of 500 RB), India (41,800 RB), Malaysia (22,000 RB), Turkey 
(17,300 RB), and Pakistan (6,400 RB). Total net sales of 19,000 RB for 
2026/2027 were for Vietnam. Exports of 120,500 RB were down 8 percent from the 
previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were 
primarily to Vietnam (55,100 RB), Turkey (13,900 RB), Mexico (10,400 RB), India 
(5,500 RB), and Pakistan (5,000 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 5,200 RB for 
2025/2026 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week 
average. Increases primarily for India (2,700 RB), Pakistan (1,700 RB), 
Thailand (900 RB), Turkey (200 RB), and Indonesia (100 RB), were offset by 
reductions for Italy (400 RB) and Japan (100 RB). Exports of 2,400 RB were down 
59 percent from the previous week and 67 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
The destinations were to India (1,600 RB), South Korea (300 RB), Bangladesh 
(300 RB), Vietnam (200 RB), and Japan (100 RB)."

   Wednesday the Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by one-quarter 
point. It was expected, but the central bank also indicated it would lower 
rates two more times this year.

   The CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders information on Friday 
afternoon. Last week's tally revealed managed-money funds had net sold some 
2,500 positions, lifting their net-short carry to 68,905. Their record 
net-short carry stands at 79,957 contracts. The report will be out at 3:30 p.m. 
EDT.

   Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 66.50 cents and 66.10 
cents, with resistance at 67.90 cents and 68.50 cents. Thursday morning's 
estimated volume is 9,075 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.