DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/15 07:13

   Cotton Fractionally Higher Tuesday

   The cotton market is slightly higher Tuesday as traders assess its next 
step. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is slightly higher Tuesday as traders assess its next 
step. Last week, USDA reported a larger-than-expected 2025 crop, while over the 
weekend the Trump administration placed harsh tariffs on Mexico and the 
European Union. Tuesday and Wednesday traders will see fresh inflation numbers 
issued, which will likely influence the Federal Reserve as to its approach with 
interest rates.

   Monday afternoon, USDA reported on the status of the 2025 crop. The U.S. 
crop was rated at 54% good to excellent, up from 52% the previous week and 45% 
a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 46%. Texas was 46% good to 
excellent, up from 42% last week and 34% a year ago. The five-year average is 
31%. Arkansas improved substantially and Missouri worsened.

   Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, a new CPI reading (consumer inflation) will be 
issued. The CPI Index, month-over-month is expected at +0.3% (+0.1% last 
month), core CPI, month-over-month is also expected at +03% (+0.1% last month). 
CPI, year-over-year, is expected at +2.6% (+2.4% last month), core CPI, 
year-over-year, is expected at +2.9% (+2.8% last month).

   Wednesday, a fresh PPI (wholesale inflation) will be reported. The estimates 
are monthly PPI at +0.2%, for both total and core versus +0.1% last month. 
However, year-over-year PPI is expected to fall +2.5% (+2.6% last month) and 
core at +2.7% (+3.0% last month). The numbers will be out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

   Thursday, USDA will release a new round of export sales numbers. From last 
week's data, we note that cumulative U.S. cotton sales for both new and old 
crops are near their lowest levels in a decade.

   Daily chart support for December cotton stands at 67.25 cents and 67.00 
cents, with resistance at 68.45 and 69.00. Tuesday morning's estimated volume 
is 5,007 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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